HD DVD and Blue Ray – when will they really hit mass market?

(updated June 24th) 

Today, HD DVD and Blueray players are very expensive (and not available in all regions).

Why are they so expensive? What will be next stages of development?

Today, the HD DVD players and Blueray players basically are a PC using Windows XP embedded while normal DVD players use a highly integrated IC (e.g. Zoran 888, MTK 1389) which is all in one: loader driver, video decoder, audio decoder, DAC etc. For this reason, it will be a long way for HD DVD and Blueray technology to put all the required functions needed for high definition in one IC. This is why it will be a long way towards mass market. Today's first generation players cost around 1000 USD. To bring it down means getting SOC (system on chip) to a new level of performance.

A short High Definition DVD Player roadmap (as I expect):

Todays generation (2006): PC technology using Win XP embedded OS. Retail prices far above 500 USD
Next generation  (2007/2008): Win CE embedded compatible hardware. Prices below 500 USD
3rd generation (I expect 2008/2009): SoC (System on chip), similar architecture as todays DVD player. Prices below 200 USD